A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
