Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
